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Closing Bell

News/Business. Maria Bartiromo, Bill Griffeth. A guide through the most important hour of the Wall Street trading day. New. (CC) (Stereo)

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Us 15, U.s. 10, Ho 4, America 4, S&p 3, Washington 3, D.r. Horton 3, Obama 2, Brent 2, Schwab 2, Simpson Bowles 2, Bob Pisani 2, New York 2, Wti 2, North America 2, Europe 2, Domenici Rivlin 2, United States 2, Jack Dorsey 2, Joe 1,
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  CNBC    Closing Bell    News/Business. Maria Bartiromo, Bill Griffeth. A guide  
   through the most important hour of the Wall Street trading day....  

    November 12, 2012
    3:00 - 4:00pm EST  

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hi, everybody, happy monday. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo at the new york stock exchange. money managers telling their clients to sell winning stockings because of the upcoming tax hikes? evidence that may be behind some of the recent weakness. >> happy veterans day, sort of today now. is the new bull's eye now on families making $1 million a year instead of the $250,000 we've been talking about? we'll have the latest on the fiscal cliff fiasco coming out of washington. >> will america soon be the new saudi arabia when it comes to oil? it's not science fixction. it's happening quicker than what you might think. what will it do to gas prices at the pump? >> it is very good stuff. right now the markets hoping to start the week off on a positive note after that rough go since
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the election last week. the dow up just 12 points. again, very light volume. no bond trading today because of the veterans day holiday. not a lot of direction for the markets today. up a point and change for nasdaq. at 2906. apple and microsoft sort of impacting the market today. the s&p 500 is up 1 1/2 points at 1381. less than an hour to go, let's talk with stocks in the green. can we manage to kick off the week in a positive note after last week's big losses? uncertainty over the resolution of the fiscal cliff is going to see for the foreseeable future, until the end of the year, as investors weigh what to do about that. what is the investor to do now that the markets get out of the way? >> we have chris levy from blackrock, michael from penchant partners michael jaynes and bob pisani. let's talk about this end of year tax increase, which is likely for certainly the highest earners.
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michael, how do you want to be positioned? >> i think the dividend stocks clearly are the most at-risk for that. if you look at utilities today, they're among the worst performing and that's a high dividend-paying tech tore. i think there's internal rotation under way but you could be bullish if you push people away from the safety trade of dividends it may force them to focus on cyclicals which are relatively sheep. >> you're still in bonds as a result? >> we've been in bonds since the corrective hesitation began end of september. i have to question how deep a correction can be under this idea of a bear paradox. the deeper the decline of stocks the more the yield rise relative to bond yields. there is a floor as far as how deep stocks can fall. >> cliff lee, you're very bearish. >> our view is you'll have lots of volatility between now and year-end. some of that we've already experienced in the past few weeks.
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i think we're over halfway through that. yes, volatility will be with us for a period of time. but we are very constructive when we look at next year on the whole. >> chris, where's the -- >> what are you seeing today? a fractional move now but it's been very much getting rid of winners and selling into any strength in this market ever since the election. >> well, i guess the question i have for chris, where is the volatility? i'm surprised. the vix has collapsed. it's a rare day when you see the vix down 9%. the stock market, dow is only up 18 points? >> this day has a big asterisk attached to it, don't you think? >> yes, but nonetheless when you saw the stuff over the week we understand a lot of people -- i was surprised how many people were arguing maybe it's not a bad thing to go over the fiscal cliff. i think it's a terrible idea. i'm surprised to see the vix down so much. we have options expiration coming up friday. people are taking off when the risk is rising. i find that a little odd.
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>> michael, your idea is it's not just about the fiscal cliff. apple is a big factor for this market as well, isn't it? >> no question. when you look at apple has come down from $700 to roughly $550, over a 20% correction in the stock in less than a month, most portfolio owners own assets and that's forcing to you be more risk averse. you're dealing with the decline in apple and being forced to deal with what to do with some tech-rooted names in your portfolio. i think you're seeing weakness in the nasdaq as a result and the weighting that apple has in the various indices, it's had a pulldown effect on the indices performance. it's not just the index performance but also the psychological impact and it's all been negative. >> because it has such a big weighting in some major averages. let's talk dividend payers.
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. do you want to avoid them among this uncertainty? and where do you expect taxes to go? >> for the very highest dividend payers, there are some risks there. but we still like the dividend growth stocks a lot. remember that these tax changes only remove a tax advantage of dividend paying stockses. it's also not entirely clear that dividends will be taxed as ordinary income next year. there's a lot of pressure to get a grand bargain here. you know, some time by the middle of next year. while rates may go up for dividend payers, it's not clear will go all the way to ordinary income. again, dividend growth stocks, we think, will be relatively more protected in that environment. >> along those lines, michael, what are you waiting for to get back into the stock market in a bigger way right now and get out of bonds? >> i think have you to have the cyclical trade outperform. emerging markets are pretty resilient here. i think that's bullish. you also need to have bond
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yields rise. we see the ten-year back at 161 despite every single effort by the federal reserve to force reflags back into the system. the bond market has to believe the fed is going to be effective. >> so, for the foreseeable future, you're waiting for some sort of sign the economy -- the growth in the economy and reflation effort is going to take hold, is that it? >> the market has to believe it's going to be enough, by way of context. the fall from apple from peak to where it is now is $100 billion of market cap. $40 billion a month. the numbers are so billing and yet the federal reserve talks in billions when we live in a world of trillions. >> so what's the -- what's the best plan here, then, toward year-end? we have the clarity of the president in the white house but we have no clarity in terms of these taxes. i'm just wondering how many of you actually think we will see a compromise or are both sides going to continue to dig in, creating a real inaction for the next couple of years? >> michael first? >> i think have you to separate
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a grand bargain from extending out the deadline. our belief is very likely you'll get some kind of downpayment past this year and an extension of timing until the middle of next year. one thing we would encourage investors to remember is how much pressure is on both democrats and republicans to work out a reasonable grand bargain. that will take time. we'll need to go into next year to get there. but we do think that is the most likely outcome by the time we get to next summer. >> okay. michael james? >> i think there's going to be some type of a compromise. i don't think -- i think if you're a congressional politician, two months ago you weren't thinking the fiscal cliff is a big deal. i think there's been so much media attention put on the fiscal cliff and the negative impact if some resolution is not reached. have you to be almost having your head in the sand as a politician to not think you need to be focusing on this. traders -- >> the compromise, chris, is
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there, aren't they? all you can -- the republicans say -- >> of course they are. it's just a matter of -- >> -- revenue raise, change the deductions for wealthy people if you don't want to change the taxes. why would anyone object to having a 1% or 2% raise? they suggested it over the weekend. the outlines are there in the deal. >> michael -- >> just a very market-driven response. i have a piece on cnbc.com addressing this. if the market were very concerned that the fiscal cliff were going to happen, you would see small cap stocks very domestically sensitive underperform large gap stocks much more global in a big way. you would see that spread widen. that is not happening. that suggests price is not as worried about the fiscal cliff as we might think. >> you wouldn't see the vix at 17. >> correct. >> maybe we shouldn't have the sweaty palms. we'll see. still plenty of time. gentlemen, thank you all. see you later. meanwhile, microsoft a major drag on the dow today. jackie is looking at microsoft and what's behind this move. >> good morning.
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microsoft the worst performer on the dow today. down at this point about 1.6% on concerning comments from ceo regarding surface tablet impacting. he cited limited availability, he also said they sold 4 million windows 8 upgrades in three days postlaunch. microsoft has been a high volume leaders today. 2838 right now. i'm sorry, bill. >> thanks. >> i don't know how anybody, whether you're in congress or outside congress, if you didn't know the fiscal cliff was coming, at the beginning of the year -- >> not only that but these guys put it together last summer. they put all the dates and everything -- >> pay attention. this is not noon material here. >> getting frustrating. >> here's what we're standing right now. about 50 minutes left in the trading session and dow up 14 points on this holiday-effected day. no bond trading because of the veterans day holiday. >> stick around.
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we have a lot more to come on this busy edition of the "closing bell." coming up, selling point? should fund managers advise clients to sell stocks from companies that have done well this year in order to avoid punitive taxes on dividends and capital gains brought about by the fiscal cliff? it's the answer you cannot afford to miss. plus, the new saudi arabia? could an abundance of shale oil in the u.s. actually bring about energy independence by the year 2020? we drill for the truth straight ahead. and how rich is rich? the president wants higher taxes for americans earning more than $250,000 a year. is that fair? or should that number actually be $1 million? and could this be the key to resolving the looming fiscal cliff? that and a lot more is still to come on the "closing bell."
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if a budget is not agreed upon to avoid the fiscal cliff, the average middle class family will pay $2,000 more in taxes.
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>> that's right. crunch time is upon us. the markets and economy will be held hostage until lawmakers do reach a deal on the fiscal cliff, presumably between now and the end of the year. >> eamon javers is breaking down the plan. over to you. >> just before the break, you and bill were debating whether or not it's too early to start getting sweaty palms about in fiscal cliff problem in washington. as a guy covering capitol hill for almost 20 years, i can tell you it's never too early to panic about what washington might do. we do have some certainty over what's likely come down the pike when they get a deal. starting with spending cuts. they have to make some cuts to entitlements, all the different proposals have some entitlement cuts in there. let's tart with the simpson/bowles plan. they used changed cpi, slows the rate of growth of many entitlement programs. identifying $200 billion in health care savings. they want congress to find that
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savings and add that to the total pile here. they would increase the retirement age. under domenici/rivlin, they would also use the chained cpi. if you were rich you wouldn't collect as many in benefits as if you were poor. also has the so-called doc fix. the gang of six proposal, bipartisan group of senators on capitol hill, they also use chained cpi and would like to find $200 billion in additional health care savings. and they would like to target 2020 health care spending as gdp plus about 1%. so, maria, a lot of changes coming on the inteelgentitlemen. on taxes it looks like some change to the capital gains tax, both simpson/bowles and domenici/rivlin means taxes will likely go up for those receiving fairly hefty capital gains
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payouts. >> from 15% to -- what's your thought, 20%, 25%? that idea of raising capital gains, of course, not just impacts those hedge fund managers but anybody who's invest invested, anybody who wants to sell a home, anything you're making any money on. >> any major transaction. >> there's a line in the sand that needs to be looked at. otherwise you kill the markets. >> if it's ordinary income it depends on your income level, right? >> we're talking about capital gains. >> no, i know -- >> they're saying for capital gains, i've talked to wall street lobbyists in town who say they're assuming capital gains is going to go up in this scenario when they're done with this negotiation to as high as 20%, 22%, maybe even 25%. but by the time it's all said and done. they have to get the money from somewhere. that's one area that's received a huge tax benefit over the years where they might want to tighten up. >> thank you. so, how worried should you be about higher taxes on dividends and capital gains? jim dunagan has told his clients
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to sell. >> is that the way to go or hold onto them? jim joins us. i realize it's a personal decision, depends on each individual's tax basis and all those individual things aggregate you're saying if you have a winner, go ahead and sell some. >> i do, bill. in this period, it's -- if you look at any other price increase, you know there's going to be a higher price next year. i use the example, if you use sugar, know prices are going up, you would make the decision to buy more sugar. in this case you know prices on capital gains are going up, you should take advantage. you should go back and re-establish that position immediately. this is not like taking a tax loss where you need to wait 31 days. the government is very willing to have you take that gain. you don't need to disturb your portfolio but need to say, i'm going to pay less taxes if i do it this year. >> what about you? i mean, in terms of selling the
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winners now so that you get that 15% versus 25% or whatever it goes to in 2013, i understand the need and the desire to do that, but in 2013, i mean, you're still going to be buying and selling. we'll have the stock market with the same participants. what's the plan? >> yeah. you know, look, the question isn't should you be selling. that really isn't the first question. the first question you should be asking is, why are you holding the positions that you're holding? so, there are really three main things. have you to look at the opportunity of the holdings that you have. you have to look at the gains that you've already accumulated. and then it becomes a math equation in terms of getting out of a position and then re-entering a position. so, it's a little more complicated than just a blanket statement to sell and get back in. >> well, i mean, i always was taught, you buy and sell for fundamental reasons or your own personal needs.
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taxes take a little lower priority, you know, in that case. is that what you're saying? >> the thing s i mean, we all know in this business that the saying goes, don't let the tax -- don't let the -- >> yeah, we get it. we know what you're saying. >> so, no, i don't think that's the case. the reality is we have to look at where we are today, where we may be next year. you always have to look at why you're holding a position and where you might go with a position. my fear in all of this, is that you have investors out there that really don't understand. i have people calling me and wanting to know if they should sell when they're holding positions in i.r.a.s. it is an individual position. >> are we overthinking this? >> i heard a broker say you never go broke taking a gain. so, her point is right. if you look at your portfolio, have some positions you're not willing to hold for the long
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term but you have gans in them, use this opportunity, particularly in this market, to reposition your portfolio. large cap stocks, dividend paying stocks look attractive, even if tax rates go up on those securities. likely a number of companies paying dividends or increasing dividends might be impacted but i don't think dividend-paying strategies will be impacted. >> what is the impact, then, of capital gains and dif denied taxes going up? if you don't think it's going to impact too much the dividend stocks people own, do you think it dictates behavior on the part of companies to pay fewer dividends and opt toward buyback or some other strategy in terms of using their cash? >> i do, maria, particularly if you see the differential between capital gains and dividend rates. they're equal now. if we get a differential in those tax rates where capital -- or taxes on dividends are much higher than they are on capital gains, i think you will see some
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change in strategies by companies that are either increasing dividends or looking to initiate dividends in this environment. technology companies will be less likely to initiate dividends in that environment where you had a higher dividend -- tax on dividend rates as opposed to capital gains. that's the scenario to watch out for. >> last word to you, quickly. >> yes. you know, the thing we have to remember is that interest rates are very low. investors right now are all about generating income. and i believe that our politicians recognize that. i believe the corporations recognize that. so you can't change your strategy just because we may be seeing a change in tax rates. >> all right. you might be giving a little too much credit to politicians, but -- >> maybe. >> -- i digress. thank you for joining us. >> in the final stretch. market just went negative. we've given up those gains and then some with the nasdaq under
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pressure. >> after many beaten down years, housing is red hot. we'll deconstruct whether this hal rally can continue. president obama vowing to veto any fiscal cliff bill extending tax cuts for people making more than $250,000. was that posturing? is that number about to become $1 million?
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welcome back. shares of d.r. horton down 5% despite earnings that actually beat this morning. cautious comments from the ceo about the economic outlook weighs on the shares today. is the long run for home builders nearing an end? we've seen a big move in these stocks this year. what do d.r. horton's results mean for toll brothers. on the technical side, carter worth with oppenheimer and on the fundamental side of the story, nishu with deutsche bank. let me kick this off, what do you think the d.r. horton numbers tell us about that company and the home builders in general? >> the results tell us the housing recovery is continuing. the critical thing is how much a pace are investors expecting?
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clearly expectations have gotten ahead of themselves and now we're seeing a little adjustment in that regard. >> you don't think it tells us anything that the fundamental story having changed? >> no. there's really no change. it's a question of, do you expect 25% volume growth versus 35%? do you expect 2% to 3% price inveess versus 6%? >> let's look at a few charts. the correlation is 90-some percent. this is a one-year chart. you cannot dwin distinguish one from another. after a big run like that, there's an element of topping out. they discounted a great deal. the longer term charts also depict this. this is a daily. let's look at weekly. that will show also how extreme this move is over just the last year and a half. meaning a great deal of good things to come have been priced in. and then the very long term, which pulls in, of course, the housing bubble, the boom, the
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bust, we've retraced about a third to a half of the decline. this is about where you stop, if you will. i mean, it's come a long ways. priced in, whatever great news is coming, it's priced in for now. >> you want to sell both here? >> we would say lighten up across the board. >> is there anything on this chart that you would look at as sort of a change in opinion here? >> no. it's just that it's too complacent. the angle is steep and also no variability. there's not even any stair-step. just one way, crowded trade. everyone likes them. typically that's when things start to get just that. >> feels like a crowded trade. you call both companies buy. why buy in after such a big run now? >> well, we believe in the long-term recovery story. it's a question of timing, though. you need some time to earning for earnings to catch up to where the price to book valuations are. and when that happens, that's a good time to step in for that longer term recovery trade. >> we'll leave it there.
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bill, over to you. >> back in positive territory with the dow up five points. i love this story. the u.s. -- a new report today says the u.s. is set to surpass saudi arabia in oil output by 2020. but is that really going to help bring prices down here at home? talk about that coming up. the answer may surprise you. also ahead, lockheed martins incoming ceo, just the latest corporate leader ousted because of a sex scandal on the same day the cia chief goes down for the same reason. should both men have kept their jobs, though? we have a debate on that coming up. stay tuned. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 this morning, i'm going to trade in hong kong. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 after that, it's on to germany. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 then tonight, i'm trading 9500 miles away in japan. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with the new global account from schwab, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i hunt down opportunities around the world tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 as if i'm right there.
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fears of the impact of the fiscal cliff could have on economy continue to weigh on oil prices. sharon epperson at the nymex. >> fiscal cliff one of the
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factors, adding to that a great deal of concern about global demand for crude oil and that continues to pressure prices. the big story they have been buzzing about is the international agency's report that says the u.s. will become the top oil producer in the world, surpassing saudi arabia, by 2020. now, of course, saudi arabia is the second largest exporter to the u.s. this would be a huge move. with unconventional gas and oil boom we've had in this country, that's a big reason this agency is saying the u.s. will become self-sufficient in terms of energy needs in 2035. that's got a lot of traders and analysts talking about whether that will really happen, whether the forecast will come true and whether those years are correct in their predictions. >> what does it mean if the united states becomes the world's number one oil producer? >> peter donovan says the optimism is already largely priced into the market.
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chris faulkner warns a lot still has to happen before this prediction by the iea can become reality. both join us. we have to drill some more, don't we, to make this a reality? >> we do. we're producing 6.9 billion barrels a day today. to get past saudi arabia we have to produce 11 million barrels, almost double our current output numbers. we've got to move that needle by a lot. there's a lot of linchpins in the equation, fracing, water availability, the president, the federal lands, offshore drilling. a number of things that have to happen if we're going to get there in just under eight years. >> so, chris, you say this forecast depends on the willingness to drill and the willingness to explore for oil in this country. that's really a policy matter, isn't it? >> it's a policy matter and a regulation matter. if you take new york, for example, with the fracing ban here f that spreads to other states, more importantly, hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, these are
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not cheap techniques or procedures. if oil was to plummet to, say, $30 or $40, that could stymie the whole operation. we have to keep oil at a level where drilling wants to happen, oil needs to happen. a lot of volatility in the market, a lot of uncertainty with the economy. we've seen oil plummet this year, down 13% to $85 today. if it keeps falling, that could create serious, serious headwinds. >> and less of an incentive to drill at that point. what about that, shouldn't oil come lower if we get that much supply coming to market and do you think it's going to happen? >> no one would argue that increased domestic supply would have a bearish impact on oil prices. that is not the question. the question is that, is it already reflected in the price? i'll tell you, oil market traders are very forward thinking. unlike ags and some other commodity markets some of your viewers might -- >> they go with the latest rain storm, don't they? >> they can. but the oil market will trade all the way out.
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we trade much deeper curve. as a matter of fact, the marketplace has given us an indication, december of 2013, roughly, about $90 today. you go out to december of 20$20 that's about $86. there is a deep discount in the back end of that curve. >> that's my point. i mean, you're the expert on this, i'm not. i'm just a guy that likes to pay less for gasoline. if we get that much more supply -- if we become the number one producer of crude oil in the world, and we're less reliant on exporting, you know, or importing this stuff, why wouldn't our prices go down that much more? you know, $2? you say the futures are going out two years and see a $2 price differential. wouldn't it be much more than that? >> well, what you -- i'll tell you, bill, where you can really see how this has already been priced into the market is something that's already occurred. if you look at the differentials
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between the domestic crude oil, the wti market and the brent market, for instance, you'll see a drastic difference. if you go back just a couple years, 2009, 2010, those markets were trading roughly flat, give or take, about the same level. starting in about january of 2011 we've seen a precipitous drop in the price of wti relative to brent. today the december contract $23 below the brent contract. move that back in the curve. go to december '14, $10 cheaper. december '15, it's $8 cheaper for wti relative to brent. and i'll tell you, bill, even at $23 cheaper, than the brent market is right now, are you seeing such relief at the pump? >> i mean, do you really think we can get to that position in terms of having this huge production to come in the united states? pete, is that really doable? >> i think chris made some very good points. certainly if the price drops it will no longer be economic fe
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feasible for some of these methods. environmental impacts moving down the road. these are all factors that have already benefactored into the price of oil as traders look into the curve to figure out which way this thing will go. >> one issue we have ignored is the political advantage of being the number one producer. i already see both of you nodding at this point. chris, that by itself, you know, forget the price of oil at that point but the political advantages, we don't have to be so beholden to opec, right? >> no. it's an energy security or national security issue. being self-sufficient n control of our own destiny has a lot of value. so, you don't want to be married to saudi arabia and worried about the middle east and nigeria and syria and all over the world. i don't agree oil will be an $80 or $85 commodity. i predict $125 for brent crude
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by 2035. delta of maybe $18 to $20. wti trading north of $100. that makes a lot of economic incentive to keep on drilling. but i think what it also keeps is $3.50 gasoline price. a lot of folks ask me, when is $2 gas coming back? i don't think it is. what we haven't talked a lot about is natural gas and the impact natural gas can have, in addition to be sufficient on oil production, natural gas the supply glut we have, we can displace coal, tuesday for transportation, l&g it to asia and europe. it's creating a manufacturing renaissance. we're bringing jobs and companies back to america who want to use natural gas as a feed stock. we're on the right track. the linchpin reallily is access to federal lands and offshore drilling. president obama has a big decision coming up in the fix six months of 2013, it's the keystone pipeline. i hope the president approves thipeline because that will show he's putting his mouth where his campaign has been.
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he's going to get at least his energy policy back on track and help america get to where we need to go in 2020. good stuff. exciting times may be coming. 20 minutes until the closing bell. nasdaq is positive by a fraction. >> one of our next guests thinks we'll see a nice rally before the end of the year despite the uncertainties of the fiscal cliff. >> is twitter going public any time soon? twitter co-founder jack dorsey is with me and talk about his new project, square. ncer ] at scottrade, you won't just find us online, you'll also find us in person, with dedicated support teams at over 500 branches nationwide. so when you call or visit, you can ask for a name you know. because personal service starts with a real person. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start.
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and find an arthritis treatment for you. visit celebrex.com and ask your doctor about celebrex. for a body in motion. equity markets kind of a small bounce today after that two-plus percent decline last week. be that as it may, even after the decline, one of our next guests has his eye on 1425 on the s&p by year's end, brian
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bellski. is it still a possibility? >> joining us is brian along with joe quinlan. good to have you on the program. joe, let me kick this off with you. have you a high-end clientele in terms of the audience you're talking to. what are you telling them in terms of year-end positioning themselves for taxes? >> each client is different but we're telling you, you have to tax some profits because of tax reasons, do it. we're also telling folks, pull back relative to volatility with a three or five year horizon. we'll be buyers for good, iconic names, blue chip companies. >> take profits for tax reasons and then get back into the market for fundamental reasons? >> right. depending on the client's needs and what they need to do by year end. >> are you hanging on to 1425? >> yes, very much so. >> it's at 1381 right now. >> and the possibility of more tax selling. >> sure. well, you know, to joe's point,
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near term it makes sense for private clients to be -- remember, many of these clients have been buying dividend stocks and we don't know what the legislation looks like with respect to tax rates going forward. but over the next three to five years we've been consistent in our thinking, bill, that the u.s. as an asset is still the best place to be on a fundamental basis. near term what we want as an investor base is we want three cs, clear cut and clarity in terms of what happens in the fiscal cliff. don't give us something that's 40 or 50 pages long. give us three to five pages long that's easy to understand. >> the stock market a diamond, in essence. >> it is. clear cut and color, right? >> where do you see the growth coming from in 2013? we've got issues over the fiscal cliff. issues over a slowdown in the economy. now we've got this more -- you know, pressure over taxes going higher. where does the growth come from in the economy in 2013? >> that's the easiest part of the question. if you take a look at u.s., it's
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a three-legged stool. we see growth coming from corporate america because we believe manufacturing in north america, especially big companies joe was talking about, companies with a global footprint, will benefit from a manufacturing renaissance. guess what? volatility in emerging markets is worse than negativity in the u.s. we know what's going on in europe. we think business vomsz will come back to the u.s. in benefit areas especially like technology and industrials. >> gordon, what are you guys on the floor expecting? what was that selloff about last week? was it tax selling? are we going to see more of that? what kind of overflow are you expecting going forward? >> first off let me say by saying it is veterans day being observed down here. i want to give a shout out to irving freeman and others who served our country. >> we add to that. >> we saw a nice pullback after the collection. we think it was related to the results of the election. people buying into a romney victory and then didn't happen that way. what are we looking for in the
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short term? new york area we're keeping an eye on the energy stocks and looking at some utilities and, of course, insurance, reinsurers, everything related to the hurricane. overall we think it seems to us it's maybe been a little overdone, this pullback, we'll find a level and eke out toward the end of the year. we've had performance squeezes, short squeezes. we think that will be the trend here. we may have found a bottom and we'll start to find lower levels to support us -- i mean, higher levels to support us as we get to the end of the year. >> in terms of tax selling, where would you expect it to come from year end? the technology, low-hanging fruit? >> it could be some. big winners, technology, pharmaceutica pharmaceuticals, some industrials that have done well. it's going to be more large cap base. as i said earlier, that selling is an opportunity for an investor with three to five-year horizon. >> because the corporate sector is quite strong. >> energy is -- we're going to be an energy power house, a
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manufacturing power house, export power house. china's turning. it's going to be a decent global economy next year for these large cap companies. >> leave it there. thank you. about ten minutes to before the closing bell sounds for the day. a market that is higher, up about 20 points on dow industrials. >> veterans have a higher unemployment than the general population. when we come back, the story about the enpractice neural veterans trying to right that wrong. >> target under fire for opening doors on thanksgiving. we'll hear from a current worker daring to speak out. so anyway, i've been to a lot of places.
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you know, i've helped alot of people save a lot of money. but today...( sfx: loud noise of metal object hitting the ground) things have been a little strange. (sfx: sound of piano smashing) roadrunner: meep meep. meep meep? (sfx: loud thud sound) awhat strange place. geico®. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. [ female announcer ] today, it's not just about who lives in the white house, it's about who lives in the yellow house, the green, and the apartment house, too. today we not only honor the oval office, but we honor the cubicle, and the home office as well. because today it's about all of us. and no matter who you are, you're the commander-in-chief of your own life. ♪
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welcome back. unemployment for post-9/11 veterans is still well above national average. about 10% in october. with more than a quarter million veterans expected to transition out of the service annually going forward, we want to know if entrepreneurship training could help. >> as part of our coverage on
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th veterans day, bertha coombs joins us. >> veterans have started their own business, almost 10% since world war ii. many are like donna sanders. after eight years in the marines and seven in the reserves she wanted to transition to working for herself. the kaufman foundation class for veterans helped her get the skills and net quoshgs she needed to launch her own energy audit business this year. >> we didn't care about the competition, you know, of my business might be competing with yours, which might be competing with his. we were all in it for each other. >> with hundreds of thousands of vets set to transition out of service programs like the sba's boots to business, they are ramping up entrepreneur courses specifically for vets to help them capitalize on their military experience in business. >> they have the ability to think through risks, to mitigate
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it, to manage through it, to partner with others in a way that many others are not equipped to do. >> air force vet justin ashton say vet ra entrepreneurs are win-win for the economy. they say when small firms like his are ready to expand they look first to returning vets. >> we are actively interviewing veterans for the open roles we have now. certainly view that as a positive background or chafs characteristic we look for. >> check out my story on cnbc.com and check out some of the world's most promises companies on gew.kons.com. >> thank you very much. it's a very different economy, it occurs to me, now than when it was after world war ii. they had the g.i. bill after world war ii that helped a lot of the veterans transition back
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into life. in many cases they were going back to school or joining major corporation because we were in a much more manufacturing-oriented economy at that time. now where does the biggest job growth come in the economy? small business. it makes sense to encourage that and have the sba program there to provide that kind of a transition for the returning veterans. >> even larger companies, there's been a real push in the last six or eight months, where larger companies are trying to give more opportunities for veterans coming home and it's been very positive, actually. >> absolutely. >> big and small. >> we do salute those who have admirably served our country on this veterans day. >> closing countdown after this short break. >> after the bell, sex scandals are nothing new on wall street but it seems more executives are losing their jobs because of them. we'll look at whether that's fair or if boards should be more concerned about the bottom line. when will twitter go public? jack dorsey joins me to talk
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abo twitter and his new firm, square. having you ship my gifts couldn't be easier. well, having a ton of locations doesn't hurt. and my daughter loves the santa. oh, ah sir. that is a customer. let's not tell mom. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. fedex office. [ engine revs ] ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] the mercedes-benz winter event is back, with the perfect vehicle that's just right for you, no matter which list you're on. [ santa ] ho, ho, ho, ho! [ male announcer ] lease a 2013 c250 for $349 a month at your l mercedes-benz dealer.
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at your l why they have a raise your rate cd. tonight our guest, thomas sargent. nobel laureate in economics, and one of the most cited economists in the world. professor sargent, can you tell me what cd rates will be in two years? no.
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if he can't, no one can. that's why ally has a raise your rate cd. ally bank. your money needs an ally. and his new boss told him two things -- cook what you love, and save your money. joe doesn't know it yet, but he'll work his way up from busser to waiter to chef before opening a restaurant specializing in fish and game from the great northwest. he'll start investing early, he'll find some good people to help guide him, and he'll set money aside from his first day of work to his last, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade.
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coming up on the three minute mark before the closing bell. we all understand because of veterans day, there was no bond trading. you'll have a big asterisk next to this trading day. very light volume. and the direction, can you take it for what it is. a very small bounce from last week's big declines after the election. but one thing, and bob pisani is right, something to keep an eye on here, look at the volatility index, the fear indicator in this market. shouldn't we be concerned about the fiscal cliff we keep asking in the market's not, for whatever reason. at least not today. down 9% on the volatility index. some of this might be a distortion because of the fewer traders in there but keep an eye on this tomorrow especially when i'll come back again, see if this continues lower. as for the day, you know, zigzag through much of the day. the dow finishing up a fraction
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at 12,085. put this in your back pocket. best and worst performers among dow, technology on the upside. microsoft, the halo 4 hit it out of the park, the surface tablet did not hit it out of the park, windows 8 did pretty well, 3 million units in the first three days but down 2% for microsoft today. sectors, a lot of bouncing. health care leading the way to the upside. telecom got hit last week. industrials and energy got hit last week, all with minor bounces today. do we just ignore this day in terms of its impact on -- what it says about the markets, or is there something going on? what's with the vix going down as much as it did? >> that's definitely an outlier. i think you throw it away. i hate to say it because we've been in green for four hours, which seems like a miracle after
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last week. we won't take anything away from this. we had a titanium stock that was hot, a couple of mergers and acquisitions, big players. i'm going to throw today away. i'm not even going to look at it. >> didn't get to ask you, brian, you still see 1425 at the end of the year for the s&p. what would get us there? what would you buy to get us going higher? >> from a sector standpoint our two favorite are tech and industrials. we also like consumer staples and energy, too, from a portfolio standpoint. staples benefits from names, companies with global footprint all over the world, very diverse. in energy we'll drill for more oil in north america and u.s. companies in the energy space will brenefit from that. >> thank you for joining us on veterans day. we thank them for our service to the united states. dow finishing with a fractional gain, up four points as we head for the close.

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